Defense Briefing

Ex-NATO Secretary General Rasmussen openly warns of the 'disintegration' of the alliance and calls for a new European defense bloc for countries meeting the 5% GDP target – including Article-5-like guarantees and an exclusion mechanism for non-compliers. Polymarket rates a US-NATO exit by 2027 at 9% probability. This marks a qualitative escalation of the NATO debate: no longer whether Europe must rearm, but whether the alliance survives in its current form.

Operation Epic Fury (US+Israel vs. Iran, started February 28, 2026) is approaching an end according to Britannica: the official US codename ran until May 5. Simultaneously, Polymarket shows a 74% chance of a permanent peace deal by end of 2026 with $38.6 million volume, and 76% chance of a diplomatic meeting by June 30. However, Iran airspace closure is rated as only 28% likely – the conflict continues to smolder but shows first clear de-escalation signals.

ISW confirms Ukrainian reconnaissance operations and interdiction strikes against Russian supply corridors (GLOCs) near occupied Mariupol – a qualitative leap in Ukrainian reach and capability. In parallel, frontline updates show Russian gains in Kharkiv (+7.6 square miles), while Ukraine has recovered around 95% of Prymorske in Zaporizhzhia. The front remains fluid with opposing movements, but Ukraine's ability to strategically isolate Russian forces is new and significant.

As a new development to the known China/Volt Typhoon threat: Iran-linked hackers are targeting US and allied critical infrastructure through exposed PLCs – directly in context of the ongoing Iran war. CISA responds with the CI-Fortify program, which will train operators on offline operations. The simultaneous triple threat from China (Volt Typhoon), Iran, and Russia to critical infrastructure represents a qualitatively new escalation level.

All NATO allies exceeded the 2% GDP threshold for the first time in 2025; Europe's aggregated defense spending reached €481 billion – more than Russia and China combined. By 2029-2030, Europe's share of NATO conventional forces is expected to grow from today's 30-40% to over 50%. Nevertheless, analysts warn: capability gaps in drones, space, and ammunition production remain critical, and the economic trade-offs of high rearmament are barely debated in Europe.