Defense Briefing

Iran declared that a renewed war with the USA was 'likely', while Trump in turn hinted at possible new air strikes on Iran. The Polymarket for a permanent US-Iran peace treaty by May 2026 fell by 13.5 percentage points in a week to just 18 percent. The escalation spiral – ongoing naval blockade, Iranian supertanker circumventing US blockade, and threats from both sides – suggests an imminent new phase of combat.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that Europe, despite the historically strongest increase in spending since 1953 and the new 5 percent GDP target ('The Hague' agreement), is still not independently capable of defense. At the same time, SIPRI reports a 14 percent increase in European military spending to 864 billion dollars for 2025, and all European NATO members have for the first time exceeded the two percent mark. Structural dependence on US capabilities remains the critical weakness, particularly in supplies: NATO states wait up to seven years for tanks, combat jets, and Patriot systems.

Front line mapping for April 2026 shows: Russia gained only 211 square kilometers (minus 5.8 percent compared to previous month), while Ukraine recaptured 133 square kilometers – an increase of nearly 49 percent. ISW confirms clearly slowed Russian offensive tempo; Ukrainian drones increasingly dominate the battlefield and accounted for 96 percent of Russian tank losses in March. At the same time, the situation in Sumy Oblast is intensifying, where Russia has nearly cut off a key Ukrainian supply route.

European and US security experts rank hybrid attacks – a combination of cyber attacks, physical sabotage, and disinformation – as the number one risk for 2026. In the context of the ongoing Iran war, Iran-affiliated APT groups are intensifying attacks on industrial control systems (SCADA/ICS) in energy, water, and transportation infrastructure; CISA and four other US agencies jointly published emergency guidelines. Ukrainian authorities blocked over 14,000 major Russian cyber attacks through early 2026, illustrating the scale of state-directed cyber warfare.

US Vice President JD Vance supports a halt to Ukraine aid; President Zelensky subsequently publicly accused him of effectively standing on Russia's side. The move coincides with a 90-minute Trump-Putin phone call, which the Kremlin described as 'friendly', and reinforces concerns among European partners about the reliability of American security guarantees. The top Reddit comment with 405 upvotes sums up the mood: The current US administration is causing lasting damage to the soft power the USA has built up over decades.