Defense Briefing

The US-Israeli war against Iran, ongoing since February 28, is in military stalemate, while Trump publicly urges Tehran to 'be smart'. Peace negotiations are stagnating: Polymarket sees only 8% chance of a deal by May 15. The Strait of Hormuz standoff continues to strangle global shipping and drive up energy prices.

Ukrainian drones have struck the strategically important oil refinery in the Russian Black Sea port of Tuapse three times within two weeks, triggering evacuations. The facility is a central hub for Russia's fuel exports – targeted infrastructure strikes on Russian territory are thus significantly increasing. This signals a new escalation level in Ukraine's offensive concept beyond the front line.

Pro-Iranian APT groups are escalating cyberattacks on US critical infrastructure – specifically targeting programmable logic controllers (PLCs) in water, wastewater, and energy sectors. The FBI explicitly warns of attacks on power and water networks as retaliation for the US-Israel war. Europe views itself as a potential next target, as NATO members politically support the attack.

NATO's largest cybersecurity exercise ever brings 41 nations together to defend critical infrastructure against realistic attack scenarios – timing is no coincidence given escalating Iran cyber campaigns. The exercise also reveals structural gaps in defense coordination among NATO members. For companies in the defense sector and OT security solution providers, massive demand pressure is being created.

Europe is responding to growing threats to its submarine cable infrastructure with a €347 million protection package – the background involves concrete sabotage threats from state and state-affiliated actors. Submarine cables carry over 95% of global internet traffic and are considered a critical vulnerability. The move underscores that hybrid warfare against digital infrastructure is becoming a central security policy priority for Europe.