Defense Briefing

On March 27, Iran attacked Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones, injuring at least 10 US soldiers and damaging several aircraft. In parallel, Israel conducted further strikes on four critical targets in Iran, including the Arak heavy water facility. The war is expanding geographically – Iran has now conducted attacks in nine countries in the region.

As the war escalates, prediction markets price in a ceasefire by end of 2026 with 76% probability – but only 0% by March 31. Pakistan is apparently assuming the mediator role after other regional mediators have failed. Since the war began on February 28, markets have already destroyed 4.5 trillion USD in S&P 500 market capitalization.

The ISW has confirmed that Russia's spring-summer offensive 2026 has officially begun, with the main thrust against the fortress belt around Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Simultaneously, Ukraine has retaken over 400 km² in the south in the directions of Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole. Ukraine is increasingly deploying heavily jamming-resistant high-frequency FPV drones, while Russia is intensifying company-sized assault attacks in sectors such as Novopavlivka and Kupyansk.

New scientific research shows: US threats to withdraw from NATO increase the willingness of EU citizens to spend more on defense, but simultaneously significantly reduce support for collective NATO cooperation in favor of national security autonomy. This is a structural rift in the alliance: Europe pays more but cooperates less. NATO Secretary General Rutte put European capitals in an 'uncomfortable' diplomatic position with statements about the Iran war.

The Waterfall Threat Report 2026 shows a structural shift: ransomware is declining, but this masks a shift toward state-directed attacks on critical infrastructure such as power grids, water supply, and industrial controls. China is considered the most active and persistent threat to US networks and infrastructure according to the ODNI 2026 annual report. Cyber operations are increasingly being used as geopolitical signals – calculated to demonstrate reach and impose costs.