Defense Briefing

Trump officially declared the war against Iran won, while Israel nonetheless continues launching further waves of attacks on Tehran and other Iranian cities. Israel insists on continuing operations and plans to expand the buffer zone in Lebanon. The divergence between Washington and Tel Aviv destabilizes the Western war coalition and significantly unsettles energy and financial markets.

The Financial Times reports that Russia is actively supplying Iran with drones for the war against the US and Israel, while Moscow simultaneously maintains pressure on Ukraine. This marks a formal connection of the two theaters of war and massively increases escalation risk for Europe. China is simultaneously calling for an immediate halt to military operations and warning of a 'vicious cycle'.

Russia launched the largest drone attack of the entire Ukraine war to date with nearly 1,000 drones within 24 hours, hitting targets in 11 oblasts. Simultaneously, Russia is intensifying mechanized ground attacks in preparation for the spring-summer offensive of 2026, while Ukraine continues to report acute personnel shortages. The attack signals a strategic escalation by Moscow, possibly encouraged by US distraction in the Iran war.

China's Ministry of State Security is deliberately using LinkedIn to recruit individuals with access to the EU Commission and NATO, focusing on information about Russia sanctions. The case illustrates a systematic hybrid attack strategy against Western institutions during a period of maximum geopolitical tensions. Combined with the Hungary leak scandal (Szijjártó), a concerning picture emerges of NATO's internal security situation.

For the first time, all 23 EU members of NATO exceed the 2% GDP threshold for defense spending, with Poland leading the ranking at 4.7% and thereby surpassing even the US. The EU credit program SAFE worth 150 billion euros for joint defense procurement has been launched, and NATO is now targeting a 3.5% GDP goal for all members by 2032. This represents the largest military buildup in Alliance history and structurally transforms the European defense market.