Defense Briefing

On March 18, Israel directly attacked Iran's core energy infrastructure for the first time, hitting the South Pars gas field – Brent Crude approaching a 52-week high. Trump subsequently threatened 'unprecedented' US strikes if Iran attacks Qatar's energy facilities again – and admitted he had no prior knowledge of the Israeli attack. Coordination between Washington and Tel Aviv is thus publicly broken, creating considerable strategic uncertainty.

The US aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford is withdrawing from the Iran war zone following a shipboard fire and heading to the NATO base Crete for repairs. The loss of the flagship weakens US power projection in the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf at the conflict's most critical moment. Polymarket now sees a US ceasefire with Iran by end of 2026 at only 70 percent.

A wave of coordinated drone and rocket attacks on the US Embassy in Baghdad was described as the most intense attack since the start of the war. According to Al Jazeera, Iran has now conducted attacks in nine countries in the region – including Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. The regional expansion massively increases the risk of unintended escalation with other actors.

NATO launched the new multi-domain operation 'Arctic Sentry' in early 2026, bundling exercises, surveillance, and forces to secure the High North flank. In parallel, Enhanced Air Policing 2026 (Portugal involved) and a planned Serbia-NATO exercise in May are underway. The initiatives signal that the alliance is actively defending the eastern flank and Arctic despite internal pressure from the Iran conflict.

The World Health Organization is preparing for a possible nuclear incident, according to its own statements, should the Iran war escalate further. The background: US-Israeli strikes have already deliberately targeted Iran's nuclear and missile programs, Iran possesses enriched material. The warning is an unprecedented public indication by a UN organization of nuclear risk in an ongoing conflict.