Defense Briefing

Since February 28, 2026, the USA and Israel have conducted coordinated air strikes on Iran (Operation Roaring Lion / Operation Epic Fury), with the stated goal of destabilizing the Islamic Republic. Iran responded with over 500 missiles and 2,000 drones targeting nine countries in the region; over 870 people have been killed so far. The conflict is expanding regionally and poses a massive threat to energy infrastructure, shipping routes, and global oil supply.

The new US National Defense Strategy (NDS 2026) calls on Europe to assume primary responsibility for its conventional defense, as the combined non-US NATO GDP of 26 trillion dollars far exceeds Russia's 2 trillion. Washington will position itself in the future as a 'defender of last resort' rather than as a central guarantor – a historic paradigm shift in transatlantic relations. European states, led by Germany, are rapidly increasing defense spending, which is triggering internal tensions over power distribution within Europe.

Parallel to military operations, Iran-controlled APT groups are intensifying cyber attacks on critical infrastructure in the USA, Israel, and Gulf states; an Amazon data center in the UAE was also hit. The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) warns of targeted attacks on energy suppliers, industrial facilities, and corporate networks, while attribution is complicated by global hacktivism. For European companies and authorities, the risk of collateral damage from cross-cutting campaigns is increasing significantly.

Russia is escalating attacks on Ukrainian front lines in spring 2026, particularly in the Donetsk and Kramatorsk areas, and has captured approximately 203 square kilometers in the first half of February, according to ISW. Ukraine is countering with precise long-range attacks on Russian air defense systems and ammunition depots deep in occupied territory. Zelensky simultaneously reported a recapture of 460 square kilometers since the start of the year – the conflict remains highly dynamic and continues to tie up European resources.

In response to the US withdrawal from the leading role in Europe, Baltic states are developing independent cooperation formats to protect underwater cables and critical infrastructure from Russian sabotage. McKinsey expects that from 2026/2027, European defense deliveries from increased orders will become much more visible and military capabilities will increase noticeably. This model is considered a possible blueprint for European defense autonomy beyond US dependence.