Defense Briefing

Since February 28, 2026, the USA and Israel have been conducting joint air strikes on Iran with the stated goal of regime change. The escalation has already claimed over 870 lives and threatens to draw the entire Middle East into a regional war – with massive impacts on oil prices and global markets.

Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi has threatened European states that any military involvement – including purely defensive measures – will be considered a declaration of war. This strikes Europe at a time of heightened mobilization on Cyprus and puts the European security architecture under immediate strain.

Parallel to military strikes, Iranian APT groups and hacktivists are intensifying cyberattacks on Western critical infrastructure – while the US agency CISA is weakened by government shutdown and staffing shortages. For European companies and authorities, attack risk to energy, financial, and telecommunications infrastructure is immediately increasing.

The US National Defense Strategy 2026 assigns Europe primary responsibility for its own conventional defense and shifts US focus to the Indo-Pacific. Europe must now independently close capability gaps in air defense, logistics, and strategic intelligence – a historic break in the transatlantic security architecture.

In February 2026, Russia achieved only 123 km² of terrain – its weakest advance since April 2024 – while Ukraine has recaptured 460 km² since the start of the year. Ukrainian deep strikes against Russian air defense and ammunition depots are showing effects, but the situation remains fragile amid ongoing supply shortages.

23 of 32 NATO members now meet the spending target, and the alliance has set a new goal of 3.5% GDP plus 1.5% for infrastructure. From 2026/2027, massively ordered defense equipment will be delivered – a structural growth boost for the European defense industry with long-term investment relevance.