March 4, 2026 · 06:06 Uhr
Since February 28, 2026, the USA and Israel have conducted massive air strikes against Iran, including strikes on Tehran and the Natanz nuclear facility. The conflict has expanded to at least nine countries, Iran has launched counter-strikes against US allies in the region, with over 870 deaths so far – the most severe escalation in the Middle East in years.
The new US National Defense Strategy 2026 obligates European NATO members to take primary responsibility for their conventional defense; the target stands at 3.5% GDP for defense plus 1.5% for infrastructure. The USA is gradually withdrawing from its role as central guarantor and pointing to the Indo-Pacific as its strategic priority.
Russia gained only 123 km² of territory in February 2026 – the lowest figure since April 2024 – while Ukraine conducts targeted counter-offensives in the Zaporizhzhia region and systematically targets Russian air defense and logistics objectives in depth. The failure of Starlink services is noticeably impacting Ukrainian combat operations.
A massive cyber attack on Polish energy infrastructure is attributed to the Russian FSB – a first, as destructive attacks of this kind have previously been limited to Ukraine. This signals a dangerous expansion of Russian cyber operations onto NATO territory and could potentially invoke Article 5 collective defense.
Researchers warn that Chinese Volt Typhoon actors continue to operate within US utility infrastructure and military-adjacent networks on Guam – with the objective of delaying US mobilization in the event of conflict. Some compromises could potentially remain permanently undetected, increasing the strategic vulnerability of the USA in the Indo-Pacific.
Germany is already spending more on defense than all other European NATO partners combined and is responding to US pressure for burden-sharing, which triggers historically rooted concerns among neighbors. The debate reflects the fundamental reorganization of European security architecture, in which Germany is assuming a leadership role whether it wishes to or not.
The security situation in Europe and in the broader strategic environment has deteriorated dramatically within days: the ongoing US-Israeli war of aggression against Iran is expanding to nine countries and destabilizing the entire region with direct repercussions for energy markets and alliance commitments. In parallel, the cyber attack on Polish energy infrastructure, allegedly carried out by the Russian FSB, marks a qualitative escalation of hybrid warfare against NATO territory. The USA is strategically withdrawing from its role as Europe's primary security guarantor, while Europe – led by a rearming Germany – is forced to fill this gap under considerable time pressure. The combination of active Middle East warfare, hybrid Russian pressure on NATO flanks, and Washington's strategic reorientation confronts European security architecture with its greatest test since the Cold War.
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