March 3, 2026 · 06:51 Uhr
On February 28, 2026, the USA and Israel launched joint air strikes on Iran, killing Khamenei and destroying nuclear facilities. Iran responds with counterattacks in nine countries in the region; Trump signals a long campaign – the largest escalation in the Middle East in decades.
Parallel to the military strikes, the US-Israeli attack on Iran triggered a massive wave of state-directed cyberattacks on energy, water, and transport infrastructure, including an attack on Poland's power grid. The US Department of Homeland Security warns of imminent Iranian cyberattacks on American electricity and water networks amid simultaneously weakened CISA capacity.
Polymarket assesses the probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz at 69% by March 2026 – a blockade of this key route would obstruct approximately 20% of global oil trade and trigger a massive energy price shock. Iran has already conducted attacks on refineries in Saudi Arabia and the US embassy in Riyadh.
The USA demands Europe under Trump assume responsibility for the continent's conventional defense – the 2026 National Defense Strategy assigns Europe primary responsibility while Washington focuses on the Indo-Pacific. Europe responds with massive rearmament (NATO target 5% GDP), Rheinmetall expansion, and the €74 billion SAFE defense fund, but remains heavily dependent on the USA for critical capabilities such as air defense and reconnaissance.
President Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukraine captured Russian strategy plans for offensives through 2027 – Russia failed to meet its 2025 annual targets and cannot launch a spring offensive. Simultaneously, ISW reports Ukrainian territorial gains in the Pokrovsk direction, while Foreign Affairs warns Ukraine is losing the war of attrition in the long term.
French President Macron plans to present concrete proposals in a speech in Brest to expand the French nuclear umbrella to other EU states – in response to growing doubts about US security guarantees under Trump. This marks a historic shift in European nuclear policy and could fundamentally alter NATO architecture.
The security situation is acutely critical: the joint US-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, 2026 has triggered a regional war that has expanded to at least nine countries and could lead to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz with a 69% probability. In parallel, the hybrid war in Europe is escalating: Russia has conducted the largest cyberattack to date on Polish energy infrastructure, while Iran attacks Western critical infrastructure digitally. Europe faces a dual security watershed – the de facto withdrawal of the USA as primary defense guarantor alongside threats from Russia in the east and Iranian escalation dynamics in the south. The NATO Eastern Flank remains stable (Polymarket: 96% no Russian direct attacks on NATO territory), yet the cumulation of Middle East war, cyber threats, and strategic US realignment confronts European security architecture with its most severe stress test since the Cold War.
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