Defense Briefing

The US and Israel conducted coordinated airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior government officials. Iran responded with hundreds of drone and missile attacks on US bases and Israel across nine countries in the region, triggering an uncontrolled escalation spiral in the Middle East.

Ukrainian forces achieved the largest territorial gains since 2023 in March 2026, recapturing over 180 km² around Kupyansk – a strategic turning point after four years of war. The ISW confirms geoconfirmed new Ukrainian advances, while Russia's territorial gains are slowing.

European NATO states are increasing their defense spending to 21% of global military expenditure, with Germany leading at over 100 billion euros (2026). Spending has risen from 2.0% to an average of 2.16% of GDP – Europe's increasing independence from US security guarantees is becoming visible.

State actors (Russia, China, Iran) are conducting coordinated cyberattacks on critical infrastructure – power grids, ports, telecommunications are being deliberately compromised. The 2026 US National Defense Strategy classifies infrastructure breaches as Threat Level 1; AI-accelerated attacks are spreading exponentially.

NATO is positioning increased troops, drones, and naval forces on the eastern border, supported by newly joined countries Finland and Sweden with state-of-the-art armed forces. Cohesion, capabilities, and credibility are the three pillars of deterrence against Russia according to Chatham House.

France under Macron plans to expand its nuclear security guarantee to other European nations – a strategic signal for European autonomy vis-à-vis the US. This marks an attempt at European nuclear deterrence as a counterweight to US dominance.